Climate change has ruined one of travel’s greatest pleasures

Even in September, Tossa de Mar is among the Costa Brava’s busiest resorts - getty

It must be 25 years ago now, but I still remember being sent to the Costa Brava in mid-September to report on the pleasures of travelling in “shoulder season”. Then considered the sweet spot of the holiday year, it was when the summer crowds evaporated, airports returned to a more civilised routine, airfares, hotel rates and holiday prices slumped, but the sun kept beating down.

And so it proved on the Costa Brava. I recall the scattering of couples on the beaches at Tossa de Mar, the quiet roads, the half-empty sunbeds by the hotel pool at Aigua Blava, the Roman ruins at Empúries – the great Roman site on that stretch of the Spanish coast – virtually deserted.

The locals had returned to Barcelona and the foreign families were back at school. And yet the weather was virtually perfect. For those who could travel out of school holidays, it was the obvious time to plan a beach break.

But are those days over? Now, it seems, the September cat is out of the bag and its golden moment is passing. A rush of indicators over the last couple of years suggest that early autumn is fast catching up with August as the most popular time to travel – especially to the Med. And that many holidaymakers are looking still later in the year and travelling in October and even November.

Even in shoulder season, popular regions such as the Costa Brava can still be extremely busy - getty

The most recent survey by the Association of British Travel Agents (ABTA) published a few weeks ago showed that 24 per cent of respondents were planning to take a holiday in September. The result of the survey, which gives an annual state-of-the-holiday-nation overview of holiday trends, may have been somewhat skewed because it was carried out during the summer of last year when people are likely to be planning last-minute breaks. But the number of September planners was up sharply from the 17 per cent which ABTA had recorded in 2023, suggesting a significant shift in the public mindset.

The trend is also being highlighted by individual tour operators. Ed Pyke, managing director of villa specialist Simpson Travel, says that September has been its busiest departure month for the past two years. Its rival CV Villas reports the same trend. “The data indicates a clear shift in consumer booking patterns,” said the company, pointing to huge year-on-year booking increases of 21 per cent for September and 30 per cent for October.

Of course, autumn has traditionally been peak time for certain types of holiday, especially city breaks. Hotel rates in Paris and Venice, for example, have always gone up after dipping in August. And for cultural tour operators, September and October – which are cooler for sightseeing as well as, hopefully, less crowded – have long been its busiest months.

But if a structural shift towards September for beach holidays is becoming clear, why is this happening?

Too hot to handle

The most fundamental factor is climate change, which seems to be affecting people’s perceptions of the potential downsides of the Med in August. Heatwaves of up to 40C have hit Europe in three of the four summers since 2022. Travel in peak season and it is beginning to feel more likely that you will end up sheltering from the sun, rather than bathing in it.

The apparently increasing risk of extreme heat is compounded by increasing water shortages and an unprecedented series of forest fires. These were bad enough in Rhodes in 2023 to devastate parts of the island and force the cancellation of tens of thousands of holidays.

A fire fighting aircraft drops water over a wildfire on Rhodes in the summer of 2023 - Getty

In addition to this, there are also far more people with the resources and flexibility to travel out of season, taking advantage of September as a traditionally cheaper, less crowded time to travel.

ABTA found that those most likely to go abroad on holiday in September are those aged 55–64 (29 per cent), and 65+ (35 per cent).

And, as the Boomer generation reach their 60s, there are ever-increasing numbers triggering their lump sums and starting to enjoy their generous pensions. But younger people are also making a difference, with significant increases in those switching to September holidays among 18–24s (up from 11 per cent to 17 per cent) and 35-44s (up from 12 per cent to 20 per cent).

The end of the September bargain

As September demand increases, so too – inevitably – will prices. Indeed, a spot check already suggests September savings are starting to look more marginal.

Take a mainstream holiday from Tui in one of its flagship Blue hotels in Greece, the Zante Maris. Book for seven nights from August 1 and it will cost you £2,469 all-inclusive for a double room with inland view. That price dips slightly from the end of the month, but even if you book for a departure on September 19, the same holiday will cost you £2,157. That’s only about 12.5 per cent cheaper than the peak price.

Higher-end villas prices do generally still sell for less from the last weekend of August. But if you look at a flight comparison website like Skyscanner, it’s clear that September airfares are no bargains.

Of course, the timing and short duration of school holidays will always create a pricing peak. And the cost of September holidays will be trickier to track because people tend to book a bit later than families with limited dates available. But perhaps that pattern too may change, as more and more of us are drawn away from the summer peak to early autumn.

If I were thinking of travelling in September this year, I’d be expecting fewer bargains and thinking about booking sooner rather than later. And – to find that golden moment of quietness, value and decent weather – I’d also be looking towards the end of the month and even into October instead.

With that in mind, here are five great destinations where summer clings on longest and you will get the best of the October bargains.

The best destinations to book now for October

1. Cyprus

In its balmy corner of the Med, even in October Cyprus still gets nine hours of sunshine a day and average temperatures peaking at 25C. And the sea, after a long hot summer, is like a warm bath.

2. Crete

Greece’s biggest island also has one of Europe’s longest summers and mildest autumns. The south coast is the warmest of all but even in the north, you can expect daily highs of 22C in October.

On Crete, temperatures hover around 22C in October - Roberto Moiola / Sysaworld

3. Sicily

So far south that it enjoys a reliably warm autumn with October highs of 22-25C: perfect sunny weather either for staying by the pool or for exploring the island’s many archaeological sights.

4. Bodrum

Summer lingers on the Turkish all through October (daily highs of 24C) and the skies remain virtually cloudless with eight hours of sunshine a day.

St Peter’s castle is a highlight for visitors to Bodrum’s marina - getty

5. Andalusia

The south of Spain is the mildest corner of mainland Europe, with the Costa del Sol still managing day time peaks of 22C in October.

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