How to dodge the worst of the flight price rises
Airlines such as Air New Zealand have increased fares for long-haul flights in recent weeks - Trevisan Aviation Images / Alamy Stock Photo
This week, a video by a travel expert popped up on my social media feed, urging me to book all of my flights for the entire year right now.
Ticket prices “are only going to go up and up as the price of jet fuel rises”, warned travel expert Rudy Max, who posts as SavTrav. “So if you know where you want to be over [the] summer holidays, you should book now.”
More than 23,000 people reacted to the post – proof, if proof were needed, that it’s an important subject for many of us. So, should the savvy traveller book their flight now, or wait?
A global jet fuel shortage
The war in the Middle East has created a global oil crisis, and disruption to supplies from the Gulf has pushed the cost of aviation kerosene up by more than 80 per cent to a four-year high. Airline trade association IATA said in a report that the conflict has exposed “deep vulnerabilities in jet fuel security”.
An oil tanker anchored in Muscat, Oman, amid the conflict in the Middle East, March 2026. The war has disrupted oil supplies from the Gulf - Benoit Tessier/Reuters
Some carriers are already increasing their fares. Air New Zealand has increased one-way economy fares by NZ$90 (£40) on long-haul flights. Qantas has also said its ticket prices would go up, although it did not specify by how much. Cathay Pacific caught attention on Tuesday by selling a business class ticket from Sydney to London in April for more than A$39,500 (£21,000).
In Vietnam, state media warns that airfares could rise by as much as 70 per cent because of the country’s heavy reliance on imports and weak “hedging” programmes – a widely used strategy in the airline industry that allows carriers to lock in future fuel prices and thereby protect themselves from sudden market swings. Some low-cost airlines in South-east Asia are understood to be planning for the scenario where planes are grounded because jet fuel becomes too expensive or too hard to source.
Europe is exposed, too. Around 25-30 per cent of jet fuel used by European airlines originates in the Persian Gulf. However, many airlines, and particularly those used by British holidaymakers, are prepared for this scenario.
“We’re hedged for the next 12 months out to March 2027 at about $67 per barrel. So [the rise in oil prices] won’t affect our costs and it won’t affect our low fares,” said Ryanair’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, at a press conference in early March.
EasyJet, British Airways, Virgin Atlantic, Jet2 and Tui have also secured jet fuel supplies at fixed or capped prices, bringing resilience in a time of short-term market volatility. However, for some airlines, such as BA, hedging levels are robust for the first half of the year (around 80 per cent at present) but drop to 60 per cent for the busiest summer months, meaning the airline’s fuel bill could go up if hostilities continue.
North American airlines, which have largely abandoned hedging strategies in recent years, are more exposed to jet fuel price swings. And last week, Wizz Air, whose hedging structure leaves it more exposed than some European competitors, warned that the conflict would cut its annual profit by €50m (£43m).
To book now, or wait?
Long-haul ticket prices have arrived at an inevitable moment of volatility. On March 10, I searched for flights in the coming weeks (travelling April 4-11) to a series of long-haul destinations. I chose those dates as business travel is often booked at shorter notice than holiday flights. In this exercise, I found tickets to Sydney up by 26 per cent from the prices listed on February 25 (pre-war). Prices were also up by 73 per cent to Bangkok, 49 per cent to Beijing and 49 per cent to Auckland.
Things appear less rocky on European routes. Ticket prices for summer holidays (travelling in the peak season, from August 1-8) to Tenerife, Palma de Mallorca, Antalya and Crete (Heraklion) have been fairly level since late February. This is reflective of both the hedging strategies of the airlines serving these destinations, and the fact that they do not face operational headaches by having to route around war zones.
So should we book our flight tickets for the months ahead now, or remain calm and see how things pan out?
“On the narrow question of price alone, the case for booking sooner rather than later is reasonably compelling,” says James Noel-Beswick, head of commodities at market intelligence firm Sparta Commodities.
“Jet fuel costs are already running at elevated levels, and we expect further upward pressure in the weeks ahead as the market digests events in the Gulf. Those costs will, with the usual lag, work their way into airline ticket prices; carriers can absorb the pain for only so long before it is passed on to the passenger.”
Those planning long-haul trips this year may experience increased costs due to the surging fuel price - CHARLY TRIBALLEAU/AFP via Getty Images
However, Saj Ahmad, chief analyst at StrategicAero Research, says air travellers could end up benefitting from holding off.
“Those who might be planning a summer vacation stand to gain if they wait [before booking], as an end to the war will mean airlines and hotels will be keen to make up lost revenue with sales and deals,” he says.
That could be a risk worth taking. However, given that many short-haul routes appear fairly stable, I would be tempted to book European flights sooner rather than later. Obviously this is destination-dependent: Google Flights has a tool which allows you to view historical pricing data going back 61 days, which can provide helpful context when making your decision.
Whichever strategy you adopt, we have one certainty: the recent crisis is a reminder of the importance of taking holiday admin seriously. Flying with a tour operator, or buying a comprehensive travel insurance policy, will offer security at a time when our holidays face higher threats of cancellation and disruption. This, in the end, is the truest hallmark of a savvy traveller.
Play The Telegraph’s brilliant range of Puzzles - and feel brighter every day. Train your brain and boost your mood with PlusWord, the Mini Crossword, the fearsome Killer Sudoku and even the classic Cryptic Crossword.
