How jet-fuel ‘Armageddon’ will play out for holidaymakers – a worst-case scenario

The price per barrel of jet fuel has more than doubled the pre-war price at times - Dan Kitwood

The jet-fuel crisis is already hitting our holidays. Since the Strait of Hormuz closed, the cost of kerosene has surged. At times, the price per barrel has been more than double the pre-war price. And Europe is particularly vulnerable to these fluctuations, with roughly half of the continent’s jet-fuel supply coming from the Middle East.

In response, airlines have cancelled thousands of flights, amounting to around two million seats being removed from the skies. Lufthansa alone has cut 20,000 flights between now and October.

Air fares are all over the place, with long-haul carriers like Virgin Atlantic and BA upping their prices but some low-cost airlines dropping theirs to stimulate demand – easyJet, for one, has registered the worst first-half performance in its 30-year history excluding the pandemic years. Meanwhile, already struggling carriers are beginning to feel the strain: US-based Spirit Airlines ceased operations in May 2026, while Norse Atlantic is reported to be looking for a buyer amid concerns about its own finances.

With all this in mind, British holidaymakers may well be hesitant to book, fearful that some sort of jet-fuel “Armageddon situation” (the words of Ryanair CFO Neil Sorahan, who thinks it’s unlikely, but says plans are in place) is going to come to fruition this summer.

So let us imagine such a situation. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed into the summer and beyond. What does this worst-case scenario actually mean for holidaymakers?

May and June: a mixed picture

Flight cancellations ramp up

As summer approaches, more airlines will be forced to amend their schedules, trimming the number of services on less profitable routes. While headlines will paint this as a summer of chaos, airlines often consolidate flights; it will simply be happening more frequently. Most passengers will, at worst, see their departure times change by a few hours, or perhaps moved to a nearby airport. The Civil Aviation Authority says airlines must give at least 14 days’ notice of such changes, usually by email.

UK holidaymakers will delay booking…

As public anxiety around jet-fuel shortages continues to simmer, tour operators and airlines will report ongoing booking hesitancy. Tui says UK bookings are already 10 per cent down, year-on-year. To combat this, tour operators will continue to keep prices competitive and will avoid the temptation to add a surcharge to existing customers, something they are (technically) allowed to do.

…causing low-cost air fares to drop

To stimulate demand, low-cost airlines will continue to lower fares. Return flights in August to Palma de Mallorca for under £50 (Ryanair, from Stansted) can currently be found, and are emblematic of a buyer’s market. This, however, will only last for a limited period.

Long-haul fares continue to creep up

While a number of low-cost airlines have hedged their fuel supplies for the first half of 2026 and can afford to temporarily drop prices, many are in a more precarious position. United, Emirates, Virgin Atlantic and British Airways are among the airlines that have already increased air fares. More will do the same as the jet-fuel crisis endures, pushing up the cost of long-haul flying in particular.

UK holiday bookings surge

As flight hesitancy endures, and following an early blast of UK heat in late May, a fair number of families will opt to take a punt on a domestic holiday. Already, Haven says bookings are up 30 per cent on last year, with Butlins (20 per cent) and Lovat Parks (27 per cent) also enjoying an uplift. With this surge in interest, the price of accommodation in prime destinations like Cornwall and Norfolk will go up.

July and August: serious issues emerge

A last-minute rush pushes prices up

With the school summer holidays approaching, British families will finally begin to book. Aviation expert John Strickland of JLS Consulting says he expects to see “some upward pressure on pricing as demand proves strong and, for new bookings, airlines seek to recoup higher fuel prices.” Those £50 flights to Majorca are a thing of the past.

The best package deals in Cyprus and Turkey

As the late market takes off, the eastern Mediterranean destinations of Cyprus and Turkey will continue to suffer lower confidence thanks to their proximity to the Middle East. The best deals are found in these destinations. However, with prices fluctuating, Jenny Southan, founder of Globetrender, says: “Booking a summer holiday may start to feel more like trading stocks than buying a plane ticket.”

Cyprus will be among the cheapest package holiday destinations this summer, according to our writer - Kirillm

Smaller airports in Europe feel the pinch

As jet-fuel supplies continue to wane, it is the smaller European airports that will struggle first. These are less well-equipped to store fuel reserves, have less reliable access to fuel distribution infrastructure and are more likely to be dropped by airlines. Governments will naturally protect their bigger hubs first. “The days of endless choice could start narrowing very fast,” says Southan.

Some flights need to perform stop-offs to complete trips

In limited cases, pilots may be required to perform technical stop-offs to refuel their aircraft. This is most likely to affect airlines operating out of smaller airports, or airlines operating long-haul eastbound flights that must reroute at short notice due to airspace closures in the Middle East.

Airlines start ‘tankering’

An alternative strategy is for airlines to load additional fuel into their aircraft at major hubs, allowing them to complete a full return journey without depending on limited jet-fuel supplies at smaller airports.

Autumn: airline failures and parked planes

Weaker carriers go under

Airlines tend to collapse around September time, soon after the summer season. Smaller airlines, including domestic carriers or operators that follow the low-cost long-haul model, are the most vulnerable. For those that were already struggling before the war, the jet-fuel crisis will represent a final blow. Only those passengers with robust travel insurance, or who have booked flights as part of an Atol-protected package holiday, will receive payouts.

Airlines strip back winter schedules

Airlines will be forced to make difficult decisions as the winter approaches. John Strickland says he foresees airlines being “more aggressive in cancelling flights which are not expected to cover costs, leaving fewer choices on some destinations”. New route announcements will be delayed until things settle down, and some weaker routes will be permanently removed.

Some airlines may be more likely cancel flights as winter approaches - Getty

More aircraft are parked, idle

As airlines reduce flight frequencies and pare back operations, older and less fuel-efficient aircraft will be put out of regular service, sold, or even pushed into early retirement. Eagle-eyed passengers will see these parked beside runways, gathering dust.

2027 and beyond: closed airports and an end to domestic flying

Calls for greater sustainable fuel investment

As the jet-fuel crisis continues into 2027, calls will intensify for greater investment in sustainable aviation fuels. Sustainable Aviation Fuel shifts from a green interest to a vital energy security priority. Governments will come under pressure to increase mandates and subsidise new commercial refineries.

Smaller airports close their doors

Airports Council International Europe (ACI Europe) has already warned that regional airports face an existential threat. As airlines protect their lucrative slots at major hubs, and following the rise in business rates in early 2026, more vulnerable, smaller airports will be forced to close their doors.

Scrutiny on domestic routes

As jet-fuel stocks reduce, it will become harder to justify domestic flight routes where a viable train alternative exists. Lawmakers will come under pressure to emulate the policies introduced in Spain and France, where flights of a certain distance are banned. In the UK, certain low-occupancy Public Service Obligation routes, subsidised by the Government to provide regional connectivity, will begin to drop off.

Domestic airlines may come under scrutiny from lawmakers - Getty

Low-cost airlines feel the pinch

While the major low-cost airlines serving British holidaymakers are well hedged for 2026, the picture looks quite different into 2027. Ryanair, easyJet and Jet2 – all with comprehensive coverage in the short term – will see hedged fuel volumes scale down to between 20 and 30 per cent from Q2 2027. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and fuel prices remain high, low-cost airlines will need to restructure their pricing strategies, pushing up baseline fares.

A more constrained era for flying

If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for long enough, new supply routes from the US or West Africa into Europe will become more stable and better established. However, with fewer airlines to choose from, higher baseline air fares, stripped-back domestic options and fewer regional airports, it will begin to feel like the end of an era for budget flights.

Southan of Globetrender says: “The real ‘Armageddon’ scenario isn’t grounded planes, it’s the gradual dismantling of frictionless global mobility. For two decades, consumers have been conditioned to believe flights should be cheaper than train tickets and available at the tap of a screen. A prolonged fuel crisis could shatter that illusion, and the £20 flight will look like a relic of another era.”

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