Ten ways war in the Middle East will affect your next holiday

The war in the Middle East has sparked the worst global aviation crisis since the Covid pandemic, with millions of people facing flight cancellations and holiday alterations.

The immediate impact has been felt by long-haul travellers and those flying into, and out of, Gulf destinations like Dubai. However, holidays to Europe will be affected as well, both for the impending Easter period and the summer season ahead.

Here are 10 considerations for anyone with a holiday booked in 2026.

In the short term

1. The western Med will be busier than usual

Mediterranean holiday stalwarts, like France and the south of Spain, are set for a boom as tourists shift their plans towards safe and reliable destinations. According to the tourism consultancy firm Mabrian, there are already early signs that demand is being redirected to classic European destinations. 

Ryanair’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, says he is seeing a surge in bookings to Europe, and that sentiment is being echoed across the industry. Don’t be surprised if things seem a notch busier than usual over Easter. If you haven’t booked for the summer yet, our expert destination guides to Spain, France and Italy offer advice on how to avoid the crowds.

2. Cruise ships are in the wrong place

Six ships, including vessels belonging to MSC Cruises, Celestyal and Tui Cruises, are currently stranded in the Middle East, although nearly all passengers have now been flown home. In the short term, itineraries with Middle Eastern stop-offs are being cancelled or amended. 

There have been logistical knock-on effects too, with cruise ships in the wrong place and fly-cruise passengers travelling via the Gulf struggling to make their connections. Unless you have heard otherwise, passengers should feel confident that their Mediterranean spring and summer itineraries will go ahead as planned.

Six cruise ships, including Aroya Cruises’ Aroya and MSC’s Euribia, have become stuck in the Gulf - Giuseppe CACACE / AFP via Getty Images

3. Dubai has emptied of tourists

Dubai International Airport, as well as five-star hotels in the city, have been struck by missile debris, and the Foreign Office is warning Britons against all but essential travel to the UAE. Therefore reports that Dubai’s hotels and restaurants are far quieter than usual should not come as a surprise. At some point, the conferences, concerts and sports events will resume and Dubai will bounce back. 

But very few people will be travelling to the UAE this Easter, and BA has cancelled flights there until June. The downturn will certainly continue until the missiles stop flying and the Foreign Office lifts its warning, but possibly far longer. If you have a holiday booked, speak to your tour operator to discuss your options.

4. Cyprus and Turkey will feel quieter too

Since RAF Akrotiri was struck by an Iranian drone, holiday demand for Cyprus has dropped. Steve Heapy, Jet2’s CEO, says: “People aren’t booking to Cyprus and Turkey and cancellations are up,” he said, adding that he anticipated a sharp spike in bookings once the conflict is over. Chryso Tsokkou, the director of Tsokkos Hotels and Resorts, based in Cyprus, told the BBC that she saw a wave of cancellations after the outbreak of war.

Conflict in the Middle East is disrupting flights, with widespread cancellations across various routes - Marcin Golba/NurPhoto via Getty Images

5. Longer long-haul flights

With airspace still closed or open on a limited basis across the Middle East, long-haul airlines are having to reroute flights away from the Gulf. This means journeys have become longer and, due to increased fuel burn, costlier. Some flights, including the non-stop Perth to London service offered by Qantas, have become impossible to operate due to fuel considerations. The flight is now stopping in Singapore. Flights to South Asia are taking up to 90 minutes longer than usual.

6. Airport disruption across the globe

With Gulf airports intermittently closing (Dubai’s shut earlier this week after a drone strike), airport disruption is a global issue. Anywhere that has scheduled departures to the Middle East could see a day of unexpected delays and cancellations, whether it be Hanoi or Frankfurt. I have heard reports of delays at both airports in recent weeks. For obvious reasons, booking flights with scheduled layovers in the Gulf is probably best avoided for now, even if non-stop flight options can be more expensive.

In the longer term

7. Flight prices will go up

Passengers are already seeing flight prices creep up, with Air New Zealand and Qantas both increasing fares due to the oil crisis in the Persian Gulf. This week, the Scandinavian carrier SAS, became the first major carrier in Europe to scrap flights because of surging fuel prices.

British air passengers are more protected because airlines like Ryanair, Jet2, Tui, easyJet and British Airways have fixed their oil prices for at least the first half of 2026 – a practice known as hedging. If the war carries on into the summer, and specifically into Q3, British air passengers may begin to feel the pinch. If you know where you want to go, and when, it may be wise to book sooner rather than later; Google Flights has a good tool where you can compare historical ticket price data.

8. Meals and taxi fares will rise too

Rising fuel prices will trickle down to taxi fares and local transport costs. Menu inflation, already an issue (prices went up 2.8 per cent in the EU in 2025) will only intensify as shipping lanes and supply chains are put under strain. There are also reports that Asian countries are feeling the pinch, too: in Sri Lanka, Wednesdays have been declared a public holiday while fuel reserves are low, Vietnam is strongly encouraging people to stay at home, and Thailand is recommending people wear T-shirts instead of suits to reduce reliance on air conditioning.

9. The Caribbean will trump the Indian Ocean next winter

In the wake of the Middle East crisis, it appears that some European carriers, like BA and Lufthansa, are putting on extra flights to key Asian business hubs like Singapore and Hong Kong. However, as people think ahead to winter sun holidays later in the year, westbound routes will begin to look more appealing. Caribbean destinations like Saint Lucia, Barbados and Antigua will have a certain allure compared to the Indian Ocean idylls like the Maldives, Mauritius or the Seychelles, which often involve a transfer in the Gulf. Note that mid-August to early October is the peak hurricane season in the Caribbean, if you do take this approach.

The lush island of St Lucia offers undeniable allure, without the need for a Gulf stopover - TravelMuse / Alamy Stock Photo

10. The return of the package holiday

As with the pandemic, the latest global travel meltdown is a timely reminder of the value of booking a package holiday with a reputable tour operator. Holiday firms with Atol protection come with consumer safeguards. This means if the Foreign Office issues a “do not travel” advisory, if airports close, missiles fly and flights are cancelled, your money is safe. This will no doubt prompt an uplift in bookings for package holidays, both for last-minute holidaymakers this summer and people booking for next year.

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