California could see Christmastime rain and snow, risking floods and landslides and snarling travel

Bethany Neufeld, 7, of Glendale on the rink at downtown Los Angeles' Pershing Square on Dec. 6, 2025. ((Allen J. Schaben / Los Angeles Times))

Big rain and snow could hit California around Christmas, ending a long dry spell for the state.

There's a high risk for heavy rainfall along the entire California coast between Dec. 23 and Christmas Day, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said. There's also a high risk of heavy snow along the Sierra Nevada.

The rains would be fueled by atmospheric river storms, which pounded the Pacific Northwest this month, causing flooding and evacuations.

The Climate Prediction Center warned of possible flooding, landslides and difficult travel conditions over mountain passes. Those at risk include recently burned areas, which could see rapid flows of mud and debris. High winds and heavy rainfall or snowfall could result in power outages, officials said.

"Pretty much all the ensemble projections bring widespread rain sometime in the Dec. 23-26 window, which will certainly bring impacts to the busy Christmas holiday," said the National Weather Service in Oxnard, which issues forecasts for Los Angeles County.

The most likely outcome for Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties is "high amounts of rain" — 2 to 4 inches on the coast and in the valleys, and 4 to 8 inches in the mountains and foothills. There's a 40% chance of that much rain falling in those four days.

There's also a 30% chance of "moderate amounts of rain" — 1 to 2 inches on the coast and in the valleys — and a 10% chance of "very high amounts of rain," totaling 4 or more inches.

Things could change, "but if nothing else, be prepared for at least some rain around Christmas," the weather service said.

But until then, conditions should remain dry through the current week, with warmer-than-usual temperatures across the Southland. High temperatures are expected to hover between 75 and 85 degrees through the workweek, which is 10 to 20 degrees above normal, the weather service office in Oxnard said.

Winds in Southern California could pick up in the middle of the week, affected by storm systems coming into Northern California. Winds could come from the north and northeast, with gusts up to 50 mph in some north-south corridors, such as the Grapevine section of the 5 Freeway, the Santa Monica Mountains, the Santa Susana Mountains and the Santa Ynez mountain range.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (Climate Prediction Center) forecasts a high risk of heavy precipitation along much of California's coast between Dec. 23 and Dec. 25. ((Climate Prediction Center))

Winds could push into the valleys, as well as the Los Angeles Basin and the Malibu area. "Thankfully, with the recent rains, the risk for large fires is really small, but we could see some isolated tree damage and power outages as a result," the weather service's Oxnard office said.

Unlike in Southern California, Northern California may see some rain and snow this week.

The North Coast is expected to get the most precipitation, with the heaviest rainfall in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Through Wednesday, 1 to 1.5 inches was expected in the Fort Bragg area, 1.5 to 2 inches in the Eureka area and 2 to 3 inches in Crescent City. Forecasters warned about the possibility of rock and mudslides.

The San Francisco Bay Area is expected to see light rain this week, with maybe one-tenth of an inch in San Francisco from Tuesday through Wednesday, and maybe half an inch to 1 inch between late Thursday and Saturday.

This week is not expected to bring much snow to the Lake Tahoe area. Around midweek, snow levels are expected to remain 9,000 feet above sea level, limiting snowfall — a dusting of up to 4 inches — to only the highest Sierra peaks, the weather service office in Reno said. But winds could be intense, with gusts reaching 100 mph by Wednesday morning, and travel could be difficult on routes such as Highway 395, the main road between Mammoth Mountain and Southern California.

The weather pattern is expected to shift in the Bay Area on Sunday, when a series of storms that could last through Christmas start to arrive. The weather service office in Monterey, which issues forecasts for the Bay Area, warned that Christmas week's rainfall could result in flooding of roadways and streams and could disrupt holiday travel.

The rain's severity depends on the exact track of the atmospheric river as it heads to California on Christmas week.

"Exact timing and amounts are not clear at this time — keep checking back!" the weather service office in Monterey said.

After significant rain in mid-October and mid-November, the skies have been dry in much of the state. The last time downtown Los Angeles saw any rain was on Nov. 21; in San Francisco, it was on Nov. 20.

Parts of the slopes are barren at Snow Summit on Dec. 4, 2025, in Big Bear Lake. Low snow levels have delayed the openings of Southern California ski resorts. ((Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times))

California's ski resorts and water managers have been lamenting the warm temperatures and lack of natural snow thus far this season.

"California is suffering from a serious snow drought, with only a fifth of average snow for this time of year, especially in Northern California. The snowpack is critical for next year's water supply," said Peter Gleick, a climate scientist and co-founder of the Pacific Institute, on the social media site Mastodon.

A number of locations in the western U.S. are reporting their lowest snow water equivalents for a Dec. 15 on record, said climate scientist Daniel Swain on X.

Some ski enthusiasts were holding out hope for a Christmas miracle.

The storms that are expected to arrive around Dec. 23 "could drop a lot of snow if the forecast holds, and this is the Christmas miracle period that most forecasters are focused on," the Palisades Tahoe weather blog said Monday. "We'll continue to watch the trends closely as this period moves out of the fantasy range and into the one-week window by the end of this week. That will increase confidence in big snowstorms if the current forecasts hold."