Canada’s US travel snub isn’t going away

12 straight months of decline

The Canadian boycott of U.S. travel has reached a notable milestone, with new data showing car trips declining for a twelfth consecutive month as of December. The drop in travel is only one of several concerns underscored by the latest figures.

Sidesteping American travel

Canadians have been sidestepping travel south of the border ever since Donald Trump began attacking their country. Trump’s threats kicked off when he was still campaigning back in 2024, but they transformed after he returned to office in January. 

Trump's big mistake

The President promised to levy a 25% blanket tariff on all Canadian exports to the US, which was a threat he eventually implemented in March. Trump later raised his tariff to 35% and has also sprinkled in other key sectoral tariffs and duties. 

Anger over 51st state remarks

If Canadians weren’t already enraged over Trump’s economic attacks on their country, they became so after the President began loudly talking about his wish to see Canada join the United States as its 51st state. This was a line too far for many Canadians.  

Avoiding America for a full year

However, as the new data from Statistics Canada recently indicated, Canadians were already quite upset with Trump long before his 51st state musings became a point of contention. Many have been avoiding the United States for a year now. 

What the new data revealed

We know that Canadians haven’t been traveling south of the border because of the data on air travel and automobile returns from the United States collected each month by the Canadian government. On January 1st, the latest version of the data was released. 

A steep decline in car crossings

According to Statistics Canada, the number of Canadians traveling back to Canada by car from the United States dropped year-over-year for the twelfth straight month. Just 1.3 million Canadians returned by car in December 2025, which the agency noted was a “steep decline” of 30.7% compared to the same month in 2024. 

What we know about the air travel decline in December

Air travel returns also experienced a major decline, with 470,700 return trips, or a fall of 18.7% from the same time period last year. Interestingly, returns from overseas nations by air in December 2025 rose by 10.4% to 1.1 million. 

Canadians aren’t traveling any less

The new data suggests that Canadians aren’t slowing down their travel, but rather that they are choosing destinations that aren’t in the United States. This is a major issue for the United States since Canadians are America’s most important source of foreign visitors.  

A warning about the problem

In February 2025, the US Travel Association saw the writing on the wall at the time, and it warned that declining Canadian travel to the United States could become a multibillion-dollar problem for the country. 

Trump’s tariffs could cost Americans

“New tariffs on Canada could impact Canadian visitation to and spending in the United States,” the association warned at the time. “Canada is the top source of international visitors to the United States, with 20.4 million visits in 2024, generating $20.5 billion in spending and supporting 140,000 American jobs.”

The worst case scenario at the time

“A 10% reduction in Canadian travel could mean 2.0 million fewer visits, $2.1 billion in lost spending, and 14,000 job losses,” the US Travel Association added. However, the travel drop from Canada has been far higher in 2025 than the 10% figure the association warned about in February.  

Things have proven to be much worse

In November 2025, CBC News revealed data relayed to the outlet by Statistics Canada had found that between February and October, Canadian air travel to the United States had dropped a whopping 21% while automobile travel fell by a staggering 33.5%. 

Recent American data on car crossings

American data from the other side of the border also supports the figures released by Canada. A recent report from the Congressional Joint Economic Committee released in December found that border states had experienced an average drop in Canadian car crossings of nearly 20% between January and October. 

Some states experienced extreme declines

Some States saw a decline far higher, including Alaska and Idaho, which both reported a 27% drop in crossings. North Dakota saw a drop of 25%, Washington a 24% decline, and a fall of Montana 19%. Vermont experienced the largest recorded decline at a staggering 28%.

How bad have things been so far?

Exactly how much money the United States has lost as a result of decreased travel from  Canada isn’t known. However, in November 2025, the US Travel Association projected there would be a 3.2% decline in international tourism spending in the country in 2025, which the association noted would result in a loss of $5.7 billion, according to CBC News.  

A projection of the possible cost

“Total inbound travel spending is forecast to fall 3.2% to $173 billion for the year,” the association explained before pointing to the drop in Canadian travel as the main driver of the drop. “Significantly fewer visits from Canada are the primary driver of this decrease, and the volume of visits from countries other than Canada are expected to be flat.”